Technological intergenerational transition and industrial restructuring

 

In 2026, it will become a key watershed for the global new energy battery industry to shift from scale expansion to system upgrading. The technology will present a three track parallel pattern of industrial verification of all solid state batteries, large-scale application of sodium ion batteries, and deep optimization of liquid lithium batteries. Chinese enterprises will occupy over 70% of the global market share, and industry competition will be elevated to the full value chain level. Policies and corporate strategies will be deeply laid out around green compliance, technological breakthroughs, and ecological construction.
In terms of technological evolution, all solid state batteries have entered the first year of verification, with cell energy density reaching 500-600Wh/kg, significantly increased thermal runaway temperature, and breakthroughs in four types of electrolytes and interface engineering, including sulfides. Companies such as CATL and Chery have anchored small-scale production in 2027, but system integration and cost remain core challenges. Sodium ion batteries have started large-scale applications, and CATL and Changan Automobile have launched mass-produced models with an energy density of 175Wh/kg. The cost of battery cells is expected to be reduced to less than 0.4 yuan/Wh, and the low-temperature performance is excellent. It focuses on energy storage, high-power hybrid and other scenarios, becoming a differentiated complementary solution for lithium batteries. Liquid lithium batteries remain the main force in the market, and the parallel pattern of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials is stable. Through CTP/CTB structural innovation and silicon-based negative electrode iteration, the energy density has exceeded 220Wh/kg, and fast charging and safety performance continue to upgrade, consolidating the industry's foundation.
The market landscape presents a global competitive situation dominated by China. The total global shipment of new energy batteries is expected to exceed 2.3 TWh in 2026, with both power batteries and energy storage batteries maintaining high-speed growth. Chinese companies occupy the top 17 in the world, and the combined market share of CATL and BYD exceeds 55%. The domestic market for lithium iron phosphate accounts for nearly 80%, and the industry has evolved from a duopoly to a superpower with multiple strong players. Second tier enterprises such as Guoxuan High tech and Yiwei Lithium Energy have differentiated and broken through. Overseas has become a new growth pole for Chinese enterprises, with a year-on-year increase of 41.9% in power battery exports by 2025. In Europe and America, policy barriers are avoided through technology licensing and localized factory construction, and in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, rapid penetration is achieved through cost-effectiveness.
Global policy regulation is becoming stricter and focusing on green compliance. China has implemented precise national subsidies and halved purchase taxes, implemented the new national standard GB38031-2025 for safety, and initiated the normalization of carbon footprint declaration and full lifecycle traceability management for power batteries. The EU has implemented a battery passport and carbon border regulation mechanism, mandating full lifecycle carbon footprint accounting; The United States has tightened its IRA policy, strengthened restrictions on localizing supply chains, and formed a global industry consensus that "compliance is competitiveness".
The enterprise trend focuses on the full value chain ecological competition. CATL's overseas production capacity has reached 270GWh, and it has laid out the entire process of battery materials, recycling, and battery swapping. It has deep cooperation with car companies such as Chery and Changan, and is synchronously promoting solid-state and sodium battery technology. BYD has launched a pilot line for sulfide solid-state batteries, with a cell energy density of 450Wh/kg, and will begin mass production and installation in 2027. Tesla has achieved mass production of 4680 batteries using fully dry process technology, significantly reducing costs and adapting to solid-state battery research and development. Samsung SDI and Solid Power are accelerating the commercialization of sulfide solid-state batteries, and leading global companies are competing comprehensively around technology patents, overseas production capacity, and ecological closed-loop.
Currently, China's battery industry has achieved global leadership. In the future, it needs to overcome challenges such as resource geography, technological industrialization, and policy standards, and transform from a world factory to a world engine through technological innovation, standard setting, and ecological construction.